基于警报关联的威胁行为检测技术综述

基于警报关联的网络威胁行为检测技术因其与网络上大量部署的安全产品耦合,且能充分挖掘异常事件之间的关联关系以提供场景还原证据,正成为复杂威胁行为检测的研究热点。从威胁行为和网络安全环境的特点出发,引出威胁行为检测的应用需求和分类,介绍基于警报关联的威胁行为检测的基本概念和系统模型;重点论述作为模型核心的警报关联方法,并分类介绍了各类典型算法的基本原理和特点,包括基于因果逻辑的方法、基于场景的方法、基于相似性的方法和基于数据挖掘的方法;并结合实例介绍了威胁行为检测系统的三种典型结构,即集中式结构、层次式结构和分布式结构;基于当前研究现状,提出了对未来研究趋势的一些认识。     

基于量子双向RRT算法的多平台反舰导弹协同航路规划

针对反舰导弹航路规划面临的动态威胁环境和多平台协同打击问题,提出了一种基于量子双向RRT算法的反舰导弹协同航路规划方法。采用动态坐标设置动态威胁,实时地避开动态威胁;通过取预规划终点方法,实现对目标的时间和空间协同打击;结合量子进化思想,将RRT算法中的扩展方向量子化表示,提出了一种量子双向RRT算法,并应用于航路规划。仿真结果表明,该方法可有效规避动态威胁和解决多平台反舰导弹航路规划的协同问题,并显著地改善了RRT算法的全局收敛性,得到了航程更短的航路。     

Indications and warning in Belgium: Brussels is not Delphi

The terrorist attacks in France and Belgium of 2015–2016 that occurred while these countries were in a heightened state of alert raise questions about indications and warning methodology as well as effectiveness of the blanket-protection deployment of security services assisted even by the military. Response and perhaps even more anticipation may require strategic rethinking in light of the predatory attacks that target the most vulnerable spots of the public space. This study looks at threat analysis in Belgium as conducted through her intelligence fusion centre Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis (CUTA)?????? since its inception in 2006. With a special focus on what is known, at the time of writing, about the terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels, this study hopes to put into context how the system (mal)functions and will also consider the preventive measures that respond to the threat, and the international aspects which have implications far beyond Belgian borders. Therefore, a case is made for not just a Belgian homeland security framework, but one that fits into an EU-wide security concept.     

The SSA-BP-based potential threat prediction for aerial target considering commander emotion

The target's threat prediction is an essential procedure for the situation analysis in an aerial defense system. However, the traditional threat prediction methods mostly ignore the effect of commander's emotion. They only predict a target's present threat from the target's features itself, which leads to their poor ability in a complex situation. To aerial targets, this paper proposes a method for its potential threat prediction considering commander emotion (PTP-CE) that uses the Bi-directional LSTM (BiLSTM) network and the backpropagation neural network (BP) optimized by the sparrow search algorithm (SSA). Furthermore, we use the BiLSTM to predict the target's future state from real-time series data, and then adopt the SSA-BP to combine the target's state with the commander's emotion to establish a threat prediction model. Therefore, the target's potential threat level can be obtained by this threat prediction model from the predicted future state and the recognized emotion. The experimental results show that the PTP-CE is efficient for aerial target's state prediction and threat prediction, regardless of commander's emotional effect.     

美小型舰艇编队电磁威胁评估和电子对抗策略

为重塑大国竞争优势,夺取和保持全球主要海区控制权,美国海军在“由海向陆”向“重返制海”的战略转型中,提出了旨在分散对手火力密度、提高对手决策难度的“分布式杀伤”概念。在此概念下,海上小型舰艇编队成为美国及其盟国海军显示前沿存在、争夺海权的重要力量。准确分析和把握美军运用海上小型舰艇编队的政治和军事企图,分析其基本组成、作战任务及主要运用方式对军队来说具有一定的现实意义。本文从“侦”“攻”“防”三个方面简要分析了美军海上小型舰艇编队的电子对抗能力,结合当前海上斗争形势评估了美军海上小型舰艇编队的电磁威胁,并从技术发展、体系建设和理念创新等方面提出军队未来的电子对抗策略。     

Influences on threat assessment in a military context

The anchoring effect is a well-studied subject. This article connects the effect with the rules-in-use within a military intelligence institution. Particularly the rules-in-use that dictate that an analyst takes his or hers starting point from recently conducted assessments of the specific area or threat. The threat assessment as well as the written assessment were affected. The results show that officers have an aversion to lower a previous given threat assessment. This gives that to understand risk assessment we not only need to understand the methods used, we also need to understand the institutions in which they are used. This is especially relevant for military intelligence as the assessments are conducted in an environment of high uncertainty.     

一种模糊阶段态势估计方法

态势指标的运动是动态和高度非线性的,甚至无法给出一个确切的数学描述。采用模糊数学这一在军事决策领域中普遍应用的方法,给出了一种态势分析的通用方法。采取模糊因果聚类的方法,利用物理传感器信息和历史数据(历史战例、作战模拟结果等)来静态求取阶段态势指标的估计值,同时采用模糊Bayes决策方法,利用非物理传感器的信息来修正估计,并且给出了优化的态势控制(作战决策)方法。     

一种空中目标的不确定性威胁程度预测模型

目标威胁预测是对空态势和威胁估计的重要内容.针对空中目标飞行控制的基本特点,建立了基于经验公式的空中目标不确定性位置预测模型,进一步推导了不确定性威胁概率预测的模型和实用算法.仿真结果证明了模型的有效性,可用于多类空中目标意图推理及威胁判断.     

Information theory for ranking and selection

We study the classical ranking and selection problem, where the ultimate goal is to find the unknown best alternative in terms of the probability of correct selection or expected opportunity cost. However, this paper adopts an alternative sampling approach to achieve this goal, where sampling decisions are made with the objective of maximizing information about the unknown best alternative, or equivalently, minimizing its Shannon entropy. This adaptive learning is formulated via a Bayesian stochastic dynamic programming problem, by which several properties of the learning problem are presented, including the monotonicity of the optimal value function in an information-seeking setting. Since the state space of the stochastic dynamic program is unbounded in the Gaussian setting, a one-step look-ahead approach is used to develop a policy. The proposed policy seeks to maximize the one-step information gain about the unknown best alternative, and therefore, it is called information gradient (IG). It is also proved that the IG policy is consistent, that is, as the sampling budget grows to infinity, the IG policy finds the true best alternative almost surely. Later, a computationally efficient estimate of the proposed policy, called approximated information gradient (AIG), is introduced and in the numerical experiments its performance is tested against recent benchmarks alongside several sensitivity analyses. Results show that AIG performs competitively against other algorithms from the literature.     

雷达网对侦察无人机突防的威胁评估模型

雷达网对侦察无人机突防具有非常大的威胁,结合无人机的突防战术,建立了雷达网威胁评估指标体系框架;并根据雷达网性能指标的相对性、不可比性和不确定性,运用模糊综合评估方法和层次分析法对雷达网的威胁度进行评估,最后归并获得的评价结果。事实表明,所建立的模型能较准确地评估雷达网对侦察无人机突防的威胁程度,对侦察无人机航迹规划具有一定的指导意义。